9 min

Possible Snowstorm for Fri-Sat, Feb 9-10, 2018

created at 2:36 p.m. on Wed, Feb 7, 2018 - Some mumblings about a decent snowfall were mentioned yesterday. The info has amped up today. The Northern Indiana NWS office has already issued a Winter Storm Watch that includes our neighboring Fulton and Hentry counties. No headlines yet for us. At the moment, the Toledo area is in the 4 to 6 and 6 to 8 inch snowfall ranges, but it's still too early, according to some. It will probably end up being 2 or 3 inches, which is still nice.

We don't have much real winter weather left. Around mid-February is when our winters normally "break". In late February, we start seeing more days with temps in the 40s or higher. Enjoy the winter while we have it. We'll be whining about the heat and humidity in a few months.

JustaSooner's website

https://www.wxstuff.com/2018/02/07/winter-storm-feb-9th-feb-11th/

Cle NWS HWO

hazardous weather outlook...updated
national weather service cleveland oh
1209 pm est wed feb 7 2018

ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-081715-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull-
wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-marion-morrow-
holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie-
1209 pm est wed feb 7 2018

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio, northeast
ohio, northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.day one...this afternoon and tonight.

no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.days two through seven...thursday through tuesday.

another area of snow will affect the local area thursday night into
friday night. there is the possibility for accumulating snow across
the area; especially in the northern tier counties. the national
weather service will continue to monitor this snow potential as it
develops.

Winter Storm Watch - Det/Pon NWS

Included Monroe and Lenawee counties.

Sent: 15:36 EST on 02-07-2018
Effective: 01:00 EST on 02-09-2018
Expires: 19:00 EST on 02-09-2018
Event: Winter Storm Watch
Alert:
...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

Winter Storm Watch - N. IN. NWS

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
959 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2018

INZ003>005-008-009-012-014-016-MIZ077>079-OHZ001-002-072100-
/O.CON.KIWX.WS.A.0003.180209T0500Z-180210T0500Z/
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Marshall-
Kosciusko-Berrien-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Williams-Fulton OH-
Including the cities of Michigan City, La Porte, South Bend,
Mishawaka, New Carlisle, Walkerton, Elkhart, Goshen, Nappanee,
Kendallville, Ligonier, Albion, Auburn, Garrett, Knox,
North Judson, Bass Lake, Plymouth, Bremen, Culver, Warsaw,
Winona Lake, Syracuse, Mentone, Niles, Benton Harbor, St. Joseph,
Fair Plain, Benton Heights, Buchanan, Paw Paw Lake, Dowagiac,
Cassopolis, Marcellus, Sturgis, Three Rivers, White Pigeon,
Mendon, Bryan, Montpelier, Edgerton, Wauseon, Archbold, Swanton,
and Delta
959 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2018 /859 AM CST Wed Feb 7 2018/

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.


Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
600 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2018

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-081100-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
600 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2018 /500 AM CST Wed Feb 7 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Michigan...northern Indiana and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Snow will end this morning except for some light lingering light lake
effect snow showers. Only light additional snow accumulations are
expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Accumulating snow is expected again Thursday night into Friday night
especially north of highway 6. Several inches of additional snowfall
is likely. Please see the Winter Storm Watch product for more
information.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Snow reports would be appreciated this morning.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

Det/Pon NWS

From early this morning.

AFD

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1255 pm est wed feb 7 2018

.synopsis...
low pressure will move northeast across southeastern ohio through
central and eastern pennsylvania today. high pressure will build
east into the ohio valley region by thursday afternoon. a warm front
will lift north across the local area by friday and become nearly
stationary. the front will become a cold front friday night and move
east of the area as a ridge of high pressure begins to build east
toward the region friday night.

&&

.near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
light snow continues but it pulling away fast. therefore have
cancelled the winter weather advisory. a flurry is possible at
any point through the rest of the afternoon and into the evening
with the trough aloft yet. temperatures will remain nearly
steady or fall a degree or two for the remainder of the
afternoon.

previous discussion...as low pressure system pulls out to the
east fairly quickly, flow will shift around to become favorable
for some light lake effect snow for the primary snowbelt region.
otherwise, fair weather will return to the rest of the forecast
area this afternoon into tonight. high pressure will build east
toward the forecast area tonight and continue into thursday.
will keep a fair weather forecast for both periods for all areas
except the primary snowbelt where lake effect will gradually
diminish.

cold air advection will take place across the area ahead of the high
pressure building into the local area. this means temperatures in
the 20s for highs today thursday and will go with teens for lows
tonight. some slight warm air advection will take place today ahead
of the low pressure system in the eastern half of the forecast area.

&&

.short term /6 pm this evening through saturday night/...
active weather pattern remains on tracks through the mid-range
periods with several rounds of precipitation on the way. the upper
level trough axis will shift east of the area by thursday night with
the trough deepening west of the area on friday. a strengthening
baroclinic zone is forecast to lift into the area on thursday night
with a wave of low pressure sliding northeast along this boundary on
friday. snow still on track to expand east across the area late
thursday night and continue into friday morning. by friday models
have trended slightly farther north with the better frontogenesis
with low level dry air sneaking in from the south. lowered pops
across the southern counties on friday and warmed temperatures up
another degree or so. at this time the greatest accumulation is
focused towards toledo where a widespread 3-6" snowfall is possible.
the axis of highest snowfall extends east across lake erie into pa
where 2-4" inches are also expected. snowfall totals drop off
quickly to the south with locations south of route 30 generally
receiving an inch or less. worth noting that the ecmwf keeps the
axis of heaviest snow even farther and will need to monitor model
trends over the next couple days.

next we turn our attention to an area of low pressure developing
along the gulf coast. another round of precipitation is expected
saturday afternoon through sunday as this low moves northeast
through the ohio valley. warm air in advance of this system will
cause precipitation to start as rain or a mix for most areas except
in nw ohio where the front starts to sag south and should be cold
enough for snow. a transition back to snow occurs on saturday night
as the baroclinic zone is pulled back south. snow will continue at
times through sunday ahead of the upper level wave with generally
light snow accumulations. after flirting with the rain/snow line on
both friday and saturday, highs on sunday drop back into the upper
20s to mid 30s.

&&

.long term /sunday through tuesday/...
high pressure will build in quickly on sunday night bringing an
end to precipitation. skies will try to clear and lows expected
to drop into the teens all areas except single digits possible
in nw ohio.

the ridge builds aloft on tuesday with temperatures trending warmer.
another area of low pressure expected to track out of the southern
plains towards mid-week bringing the next chance of precipitation.
the area will once again straddle the rain/snow line with cooler
air in northwest ohio and warmer temperatures to the east.

&&

.aviation /18z wednesday through monday/...
ifr and mvfr conditions remain with light snow from cle/mfd and
points eastward. a flurry is possible just about anywhere with
the upper trough still overhead. ifr should be confined to just
a few more hours here this afternoon. otherwise expect
widespread ceilings a little on either side of 2k feet for
tonight. there may even be a few holes of vfr. northwest winds
will relax and back to the west-southwest for thursday.

outlook...non-vfr late thursday night and continuing for the
majority of the time through sunday night.

&&

.marine...
although an active weather pattern is setting up into this weekend,
winds will generally not be an issue at 15 knots or less. winds will
start off out of the northeast at 10-15 knots this morning then will
back to the northwest this afternoon as low pressure moving through
the ohio valley tracks towards new england. winds will back to
southwest and decrease on thursday as high pressure expands across
the ohio valley. east to northeast winds will develop on friday and
continue through saturday as several waves of low pressure passes
south of the lake. winds will back to the northwest sunday and
decrease sunday night as the next area of high pressure arrives.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$
synopsis...lombardy
near term...lombardy/oudeman
short term...kec
long term...kec
aviation...oudeman
marine...kec

by JR - 1669 words - 9 min read
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