19 min

Winter Storm Warning for Fri, Feb 9, 2018

created at 3:11 p.m. on Thu, Feb 8, 2018 - updated at 11:28 p.m. - It's a sunny afternoon with temps around 20 degrees. Within the hour, the Cle NWS upgraded our headline from watch to warning. We are forecast to receive 5 to 9 inches of snowfall from approximately Midnight tonight to Midnight tomorrow night. From the headline: "The heaviest snow will take place between 5am and 7pm Friday." That's spread out over 14 hours. Currently, we have 4 to 5 inches of snow cover, mainly from the snowfall over the past week.

11:28 p.m. update: We are now forecast to receive between 7 and 14 inches of snowfall, but the Winter Storm Warning states 7 to 10 inches. Det/Pon NWS predicts 6 to 9 inches for Monroe and Lenawee counties. Unsure why the Toledo forecast totals so much. Snow has not started yet over Toledo.

9:25 p.m. statement

urgent - winter weather message
national weather service cleveland oh
925 pm est thu feb 8 2018

...heavy snow expected in northwest ohio late tonight into
friday night...

.snow will spread across northwest ohio late tonight and continue
through the morning rush hour. periods of moderate to heavy snow
will continue into friday night.

ohz003-091030-
/o.con.kcle.ws.w.0002.180209t0500z-180210t0500z/
lucas-
including the city of toledo
925 pm est thu feb 8 2018

...winter storm warning remains in effect until midnight est
friday night...

precautionary/preparedness actions...

a winter storm warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. if you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency. the latest road conditions can
be obtained from the department of transportation web site.


Cle NWS image shows Toledo in the 10-inch snowfall range. It's narrow, and the amounts drop quickly only a little further south. Bowling Green is forecast to receive 6 inches, and Findlay is forecast to receive 2 inches.

N. In. NWS image:

Det/Pon NWS image shows 6 to 9 images for the warned areas, including Monroe and Lenawee counties.

Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories will be in effect from Friday morning through Friday night for portions of southeast Michigan. Expect heavy snow with accumulations ranging between 6 to 9 inches to fall within the warning area, with accumulations ranging between 3 to 7 inches within the Advisory area. Snow is likely to cause hazardous travel conditions for the Friday morning commute, so plan on difficult driving conditions.


Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Feb 8, 2018 9:22 pm

Tonight: A chance of snow showers before 1am, then snow, mainly after 1am. Low around 15. Light and variable wind becoming east around 5 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. [2 inches maybe. 4 seems unlikely]

Friday: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 31. East wind 5 to 8 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. [4 to 5 inches maybe. 8 seems unlikely]

Friday Night: Snow, mainly before 3am. Low around 21. North wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Saturday: Snow likely, mainly after 7am. Cloudy, with a high near 28. Northeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Saturday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 21. North wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Sunday: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 28. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 9.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 27.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 13.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 35.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 36.

Wednesday Night: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Thursday: A chance of rain and snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 30%.


Chilly late this evening.

Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
Feb 8, 2018 10:52 pm
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 11 F
Humidity : 88%
Wind Speed : Calm
Barometer : 30.41 in
Dewpoint: 8 F
Visibility : 8.00 statute miles

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
(formerly Metcalf Airport)
Feb 8, 2018 10:53 pm
Weather : Overcast with Haze
Temperature : 12 F
Humidity : 77%
Wind Speed : Calm
Barometer : 30.43 in
Dewpoint: 6 F
Visibility : 6.00 statute miles

Toledo Suburban Airport (KDUH)
(near Lambertville)
Feb 8, 2018 11:15 pm
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 12 F
Humidity : 83%
Wind Speed : Calm
Barometer : 30.42 in
Dewpoint: 8 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles


Cle AFD

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
952 pm est thu feb 8 2018

.synopsis...
low pressure will move across northwest ohio friday, bringing a
warm front north to lake erie and then sliding the cold front
across the area late friday night. the front will slowly press
further southeast over the weekend. by monday morning high
pressure and fair weather will return to the region.

&&

.near term /through friday night/...
current radar trends to our west show the band of snow a bit
farther south than what the previous forecast and models such as
the nam, canadian, and sref have shown. these trends are more
in line with the wrf-nmm and the gfs, so have nudged higher
snowfall amounts farther south across northwest ohio. have
therefore issued a winter weather advisory for 3 to 6 inches of
snow for wood, ottawa, and sandusky counties. the higher totals
will be found across the northern portions of wood and
sandusky counties, and all of ottawa county.forecast totals
across northern lucas county, where a winter storm warning
remains in effect, are now around 10 to 11 inches.

the morning commute will be severely impacted across northwest
ohio with heavy snow likely ongoing. farther east along the
lakeshore light to moderate snow can be expected with roads
quickly becoming snow covered, including in the cleveland area.
the snow should pivot north of much of the area by 10am or so,
though snow will continue across far northeast ohio into
northwest pennsylvania for a bit longer. this will lead to a
break in the snow for most through the remainder of the
afternoon. the one exception could be northern portions of lucas
county if the band doesn`t quite make it north of the
ohio/michigan border.

the band of snow should begin to sink back south into northwest
ohio by mid to perhaps late afternoon with another round of
accumulating snow expected into friday night. look for this band
of snow to arrive farther east along the lakeshore from
cleveland to erie near or a little after sunset.

previous discussion...
still a snow shower or two lingering across northwest pa late
this afternoon, but essentially the low levels are dried out and
we are getting breaks of sun for the early evening. cloud cover
will increase later this evening and snow will begin to break
out across indiana and into northwest ohio toward or slightly
after midnight. after surrounding office coordination and
reviewing latest guidance have issued a winter storm warning for
lucas county only. there is a fair amount of consistency with
the expectation of a narrow band of heavier snowfall taking
place very near the ohio/michigan border. a slight shift in this
forecast would change amounts, but the most likely range would
be between 6 and 8 inches especially with the possibility of the
snow, albeit lighter, lingering well into friday evening. a
winter weather advisory for lesser, but still impactful amounts
may be needed surrounding the lucas warning. elsewhere, lighter
snow will overspread most of cleveland/akron/youngstown/erie
metro areas just before or during the morning rush hour. the
precipitation gradient will remain tight and far southern
locations have a 30 or 40 percent chance of snow through friday
morning. the precipitation begins to taper even further across
the south as the day goes on and temperatures across the
southeast will begin to rise above freezing friday afternoon.
friday night the wave on the front passes and the front begins
to shift southeast. bring chance to likely pops across the area
friday night. so far southeast counties will have a little rain.
mixed precip/freezing rain a small possibility, but not certain
enough to include in the forecast.

&&

.short term /saturday through sunday night/...
a cold front over the cwa should drift slowly se out of the area sat
into sat night. the mid and upper level flow will tend to remain sw
or wsw which will aid in overrunning precip trying to linger over
the area thru sun, then by sun night most of the precip should shift
se out of the area. temps sat thru sun will be marginal for all snow
so some rain may mix in for the se part of the cwa. overall snow
accumulation should be light, under 2 inches, but less than an inch
in the far se.

high pressure moving in for mon should bring dry conditions. highs
will mostly be in the 30s each day, except mainly upper 20s in the
nw.

&&

.long term /monday through thursday/...
monday night models show high pressure to our north moving east
through the night. this will allow low pressure to move northeast
through the tennessee valley into west virginia by 12z tuesday. the
gfs however is much stronger than the ecmwf and thus much better
developed with the moisture. either way moisture is across the
eastern half of the area tuesday with drying into wednesday as the
system moves east and high pressure builds into the area from the
central plains. wednesday night into thursday low pressure moves
through the lakes bringing moisture back into the area from the
south. temps tricky with this system with 850mb temps above 0c and
overnight lows indicated now below freezing. feel forecast lows may
rise from here so for now will leave ptype as rain or snow.

&&

.aviation /00z friday through tuesday/...
widespread vfr will continue until snow begins to move in from
the west around midnight tonight with rapidly deteriorating
conditions. expect the snow to spread east reaching cle by 5 am
with widespread snow. heaviest snow is expected at tol with
lifr conditions at times. widespread ifr can be expected
eastward along the lake shore through much of the forecast
period. the gradient in precipitation and impactful cigs/vsbys
will be very tight. southern terminals will see improvement
going toward mid to late morning friday. kyng could see snow
flurries stick around through much of the day.

outlook...areas of non vfr on and off through the weekend with
occasional light snow at northern terminals and light rain/snow
at southern terminals.

&&

.marine...
an active wx pattern will lead to changeable wind directions thru
tuesday. wind speeds should stay under 20 knots, so with near normal
temps, the lake should stay mostly ice covered.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter weather advisory until midnight est friday night for
ohz006>008.
winter storm warning until midnight est friday night for
ohz003.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$
synopsis...oudeman
near term...mottice/oudeman
short term...adams
long term...tk
aviation...mottice
marine...adams


Det/Pon AFD

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
618 pm est thu feb 8 2018

.aviation...

mvfr cigs with scattered lake effect flurries/snow showers will
linger early this evening. broader area of snow within strong fgen
banding will then overspread area overnight and persist much of
friday. heaviest snow appears lined up along the i-94 terminals, but
will also impact kptk/kfnt and to some degree kmbs significantly.
snow will begin in earnest between 08z-10z and ramp up into the mid
to late morning period with broad period of lifr vsbys late tonight
into friday afternoon.

for dtw...mvfr cigs and lake effect flurries this evening will give
way to long period of snow from roughly 07z-08z through 00z or so on
friday evening. heaviest snow will occur 11z-18z or so with rates of
one half an inch an hour to occasionally one inch an hour. intensity
of snow will gradually wind down 18z-00z, but light snow may very
well linger into the rest of the evening.

/dtw threshold probabilities...

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 305 pm est thu feb 8 2018

discussion...

a solid long duration accumulating snowfall set to impact a good
portion of southeast michigan friday. a winter storm warning is now
in place for the ann arbor to detroit corridor southward, while a
winter weather advisory now highlights expected conditions northward
through the i-69 corridor.

the governing dynamics for this event just now coming into better
light, as two distinct pv anomalies that largely drive the
subsequent mass field adjustment and thermal response receive
appropriate sampling. contraction of the upper height field as these
impulses squeeze into an existing lower amplitude w-nw mean flow
will establish a well-defined mid level frontal structure. this
frontal slope will take residence locally tonight, subsequently
oscillating over lower mi and northern in/oh for a good 24 hours.
fgen forcing rapidly strengthens tonight as the thermal gradient
contracts and favorable upper jet positioning works over the top.
the greatest response remains focused within the 700-500 mb layer,
where activation of strong ascent will be augmented by an
environment characterized by neutral to weakly instability. it will
be within this portion of the frontal zone where a sizable west-east
expanding swath of snow will materialize locally overnight
/06z-09z projected onset window/. pockets of isentropic ascent and
cva will contribute to the overall forcing and provide all locations
with a period of accumulating snow starting overnight and lasting
well into friday.

the axis of heaviest snowfall will ultimately be defined by the west
to east positioning and geographic expanse of the fgen forcing. this
environment typically yields a defined high end snowfall maximum
that becomes sensitive small north-south fluctuations over a small
geographic footprint /often a row or two of counties/. 12z model
suite continues to exhibit some smaller scale fluctuations, but in
general center the strongest forcing between toledo and pontiac.
assuming the strongest forcing materializes above 700 mb and not
below, then max ascent will capitalize on a layer with temperatures
of -12c to -16c and fully supersaturated with respect to ice. this
will translate into a solid period of moderate to occasionally high
snowfall rates friday morning within the heaviest bands. forcing
will begin to contract in scale during the afternoon as the
peripheral isentropic ascent fades, turning this into a purely fgen
driven event. diminishing snowfall rates likely to commence at this
stage with northward extent, as the most meaningful accumulation
potential remains centered from the m-59 corridor southward. a
secondary fgen response perhaps initiated by a spike in cva and
renewed upper jet support will maintain the potential for
accumulation well into the evening for southern locations.

general model consensus yields a broad qpf distribution from .1"
across the saginaw valley/thumb to upwards of .5-7" near the ohio
border. this event likely characterized by near average snowfall
rates /12-13:1/, but with the likelihood for ratios to arrive a
touch higher with northward extent...and possibly all locations
during the early stages. given the moisture quality...2 to 3 g/kg
specific humidity...degree of forcing and length of event, this
maintains the potential for high end amounts to climb above 8
inches. highest likelihood centered i-94 corridor southward,
supporting issuance of a warning. m-59 tier remains more tenuous
with reliance on a northward wobble in frontal positioning and a
stronger early day response, suggesting high end advisory amounts /5-
7 inches/ carry a higher probability. advisory level conditions up
through the i-69 corridor /3-6 inches/, with 3 inches or less north
of this corridor.

pattern will remain conducive for another round or two of snowfall
during the weekend period. periodic strengthening of mid level
dynamics under favorably positioned right entrance region upper jet
forcing and subsequent uptick in fgen/deformation will present an
opportunity for some light accumulation on saturday /inch or two/.

a baroclinic zone set up across se mi in association with an upper-
level disturbance and ideal right entrance jet streak dynamics will
bring probable snow chances across the metro region, with possible
snow chances up towards the tri-cities into thumb region throughout
sunday morning and afternoon. pop values have been bumped up to 50 -
90% for this time frame to reflect current thinking. preliminary
snow estimates will bring a half-inch up to two inches of fresh
snowfall to the metro region, but will certainly need to keep an eye
out for snow potential through the morning and afternoon. the ecmwf
latest 12z run is bullish with the latest qpf, especially across the
metro region, which would bring localized higher amounts to the
area. additional forecast cycles will be needed to pinpoint snow
amounts and timing.

mid-level flow will turn more zonal for the start of next week into
the mid-week period as a broad surface high pressure system builds
in across the ohio valley to great lakes region. this will act to
keep conditions dry as temperature highs begin to push back into the
mid-30s starting tuesday, thanks to a weak warm front. the next
chance for snow and perhaps a rain/snow mix will enter late
wednesday into early thursday as low pressure builds in across the
region. long-range models have yet to converge on the location of
the low pressure system thus pop values will remain low at this
time. the gem and ecmwf model solutions place the low across
northern lower mi to southern ontario by 06z thursday, while the gfs
pushes the low across central lower michigan. overall, snow chances
are expected early sunday, with snow possible towards the end of the
week. temperatures will be on the climb, with the return to the mid-
30s by tuesday.

marine...

surface high pressure tracking through the ohio valley will keep
winds relatively through the rest of today as it moves eastward.
gradient flow will allow a few gusts up to 20-25 knots during the
afternoon, but will decrease throughout the night. a frontal
boundary will move into the southern great lakes tonight that will
also bring likely chances for snow across portions of lake huron.
the highest snow chances mainly across central and southern lake
huron. as frontal boundary moves through the great lakes tomorrow
the winds will shift to the east and remain light. wind expected to
remain light as a high pressure builds into the region and back to a
more northerly to northerly flow friday night into saturday morning.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...winter storm warning from 3 am friday to midnight est friday night
for miz075-076-082-083.

winter weather advisory from 3 am friday to midnight est friday
night for miz060>063-068>070.

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....dg
discussion...mr/am
marine.......aa

2:39 p.m. statement

urgent - winter weather message
national weather service cleveland oh
239 pm est thu feb 8 2018

...heavy snow possible in northwest ohio late tonight and
friday...

.snow will spread across northwest ohio late tonight and continue
through the morning rush hour. the snow will gradually diminish
by friday evening.

ohz003-090500-
/o.upg.kcle.ws.a.0002.180209t0500z-180210t0300z/
/o.new.kcle.ws.w.0002.180209t0500z-180210t0500z/
lucas-
including the city of toledo
239 pm est thu feb 8 2018

...winter storm warning in effect from midnight tonight to
midnight est friday night...

precautionary/preparedness actions...

a winter storm warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. if you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency. the latest road conditions can
be obtained from the department of transportation web site.

WXStuff

Thursday morning update.

https://www.wxstuff.com/2018/02/08/winter-storm-feb-9-11th-thursday-am-update/

by JR - 3543 words - 19 min read
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