16 min

Toledo Weather - Sat, Feb 10, 2018

created at 8:23 a.m. - This morning was overcast with temps in the low to mid 20s. More wintry precip is forecast over the next 36 hours. We might receive a couple more inches of snowfall, along with possible freezing drizzle and sleet. Two cold mornings are forecast for Monday and Tuesday with lows near 10 degrees. Then moderating temps above freezing begin on Wednesday with highs forecast to be in the 40s on Wednesday and Thursday. Mid-February is about when our winters "break".

10:34 a.m.

Barney and I walked from 8:56 a.m. to 9:32 a.m.

Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
Feb 10, 2018 9:52 am
Weather : Fog/Mist
Temperature : 23 F
Humidity : 88%
Wind Speed : NNE 9 mph
Barometer : 30.12 in
Dewpoint: 20 F
Visibility : 5.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 13 F
External Link : 3-day history

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
(formerly Metcalf Airport)
Feb 10, 2018 9:53 am
Weather : Overcast with Haze
Temperature : 24 F
Humidity : 81%
Wind Speed : NE 9 mph
Barometer : 30.14 in
Dewpoint: 19 F
Visibility : 3.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 14 F
Toledo Suburban Airport (KDUH)
(near Lambertville)
Feb 10, 2018 10:15 am
Weather : Fog/Mist
Temperature : 22 F
Humidity : 86%
Wind Speed : NNE 6 mph
Barometer : 30.14 in
Dewpoint: 19 F
Visibility : 5.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 14 F

8:23 a.m. cont

From this morning's Hazardous Weather Outlook, issued by the Cle NWS:

light wintry precipitation is expected today as a cold front sags south of the area. temperatures hovering around the freezing mark today will allow for some areas of light rain to possibly mix to freezing rain or snow in any colder locations. patchy freezing drizzle is possible tonight as temperatures cool to below freezing for overnight lows. winter weather advisories may be needed in some locations.

a chance for a wintry mix of precipitation including rain, freezing rain, and snow will continue into the sunday.


Toledo Forecast as of Feb 10, 2018 7:41 am

Today: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 27. Northeast wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Tonight: A chance of snow, mainly after 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 22. Northeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Sunday: Snow and sleet likely before 10am, then snow and sleet, possibly mixed with freezing rain between 10am and 1pm, then snow likely after 1pm. Patchy fog before 2pm. High near 27. Northeast wind around 8 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Sunday Night: Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 12. West wind around 7 mph.


Yesterday's snowfall ended at 12:30 p.m. We totaled 3.5 to 4.0 inches. With temps above freezing in the afternoon, some melting and compressing probably occurred. We had about four inches of snow depth before yesterday's snowfall. Our snow depth this morning in West Toledo ranges between 6 and 7 inches, at least.

At 7:18 a.m., a Northern Cardinal sang once along the west side of our house. I heard cardinals sing in our neighborhood back in January. This was the first time in 2018 that I heard one sing in the usual spot along the side of our house.

It's still snowing over much of the southern third of Michigan.

8am airport conditions

Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
Feb 10, 2018 7:52 am
Weather : Fog/Mist
Temperature : 23 F
Humidity : 92%
Wind Speed : NNE 8 mph
Barometer : 30.14 in
Dewpoint: 21 F
Visibility : 5.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 14 F

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
(formerly Metcalf Airport)
Feb 10, 2018 7:53 am
Weather : Light Snow Fog/Mist
Temperature : 23 F
Humidity : 85%
Wind Speed : NNE 8 mph
Barometer : 30.16 in
Dewpoint: 19 F
Visibility : 2.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 14 F

Toledo Suburban Airport (KDUH)
(near Lambertville)
Feb 10, 2018 7:55 am
Weather : Fog/Mist
Temperature : 21 F
Humidity : 88%
Wind Speed : NE 5 mph
Barometer : 30.15 in
Dewpoint: 18 F
Visibility : 5.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 14 F

HWO

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
555 am est sat feb 10 2018

ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-111100-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull-
wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-marion-morrow-
holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie-
555 am est sat feb 10 2018

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio, northeast
ohio, northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.day one...today and tonight.

light wintry precipitation is expected today as a cold front sags
south of the area. temperatures hovering around the freezing mark
today will allow for some areas of light rain to possibly mix to
freezing rain or snow in any colder locations. patchy freezing
drizzle is possible tonight as temperatures cool to below freezing
for overnight lows. winter weather advisories may be needed in some
locations.

.days two through seven...sunday through friday.

a chance for a wintry mix of precipitation including rain, freezing
rain, and snow will continue into the sunday.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.

7:41 a.m. forecast

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Feb 10, 2018 7:41 am

Today: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 27. Northeast wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Tonight: A chance of snow, mainly after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 22. Northeast wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Sunday: Snow and sleet likely before 11am, then snow and sleet, possibly mixed with freezing rain between 11am and 2pm, then snow likely after 2pm. Patchy fog before 3pm. High near 27. Northeast wind around 8 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Sunday Night: A chance of snow, mainly before 7pm. Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 12. West wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 25. West wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable in the afternoon.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 10.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 29.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 40.

Wednesday Night: A chance of rain after 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday: A chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday Night: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

7:54 a.m. AFD

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
754 am est sat feb 10 2018

.synopsis...
a frontal boundary will stall across the ohio valley today> low
pressure originating along the gulf coast will track northeast
through the tennessee and ohio valleys on sunday, before
departing into quebec. high pressure will build east across the
great lakes on monday then to new england on tuesday.

&&

.near term /through sunday/...
patchy fog and low stratus has developed this morning and added
to the forecast for a few hours this morning. corridor of patchy
freezing rain located north of i-76 this morning is decreasing
and sinking south into the slightly warmer air. most areas will
see a break in precipitation for the next few hours before
precipitation spreads back in late this morning. concern remains
that a winter weather advisory may be needed for freezing rain
if this precipitation pushes north into the colder air where
surface temperatures are below freezing.

previous discussion...a surface trough extends from the gulf
coast through the ohio valley. low pressure will track northeast
along this boundary on sunday before departing to the northeast
and pulling much colder air south behind the system. mixed
precipitation will be a problem over the weekend as a layer of
warm air aloft remains in place roughly south and east of a line
from findlay to cleveland while northerly surface winds allow
surface temperatures to cool. surface temperatures are also very
tricky to determine with a large northwest to southeast
gradient expected across the area. precipitation over the
weekend is generally expected to be light, maybe even just
drizzle at times, but any locations with sub-freezing surface
temperatures will pose a risk of light icing. the exception to
this is across far nw ohio where the layer aloft is more likely
to remain below freezing allowing precipitation to primarily
fall as snow.

another round of rain expected across the central and eastern
portion of the area this afternoon. locations north of i-76 in
ne ohio are most at risk of freezing rain this afternoon, but
again will depend a lot on how much surface temperatures have
fallen at that point. temperatures are expected to gradually
fall from north to south through the afternoon.

colder air will settle south tonight and a break in the
precipitation is expected. have included a mention of light freezing
drizzle in the forecast but precipitation expected to be very
light if at all so trended pops down for tonight. low pressure
will track north from the gulf coast on sunday across southeast
ohio towards the eastern great lakes. precipitation will
increase, especially south and east of the low track.
precipitation also expected to develop across nw ohio as the
upper level trough approaches and frontogenesis ramps up across
the tightly packed baroclinic zone. this will once again produce
an opportunity for mixed precipitation before transitioning
back over to snow.

&&

.short term /sunday night through tuesday night/...
the short term forecast begins on sunday night with a departing cold
front and arctic high pressure moving into the region. while the
surface high and zonal flow aloft will squash most chances of
precipitation for the short term forecast period, cold air from
canada will stream into the region which will allow for temperatures
below normal for the first half of the short term. as high pressure
to our north drifts eastward, the next low pressure system will
progress in behind the high and attempt to sag south into the great
lakes region. overall, it appears that the low will stay well north
of the forecast area but some precipitation may reach the far east
portion of the forecast area on tuesday night so left in a slight
chance of rain for the very end of the short term. as the high
pressure departs and low pressure skirts to our north, the wind flow
should shift around to the south and allow for some warmer air to
creep in and get temperatures above freezing for tuesday, making any
precipitation type to be rain in lieu of snow.

&&

.long term /wednesday through friday/...
the long term forecast begins on wednesday with high pressure over
the southeast united states and low pressure departing to the
northeast over canada. the guidance is trying to depict some sort of
weak surface trough between the two systems, as mostly zonal flow
aloft will not allow for any organized system. some rain may try to
develop along this surface feature but it would be limited to far
eastern areas. the next system is progged to move into the great
lakes region on thursday as low pressure once again moves to the
north, but this time the trailing cold front does look to impact the
region with widespread precipitation. a fairly warm airmass with
temperatures well above normal will allow for mostly rain ahead of
the cold front for thursday and the first part of thursday night.
however, a cold airmass with the front will allow for the
precipitation type to change quickly to some sort of frozen
precipitation. thursday night is fairly far out to get a good grip
on what the main p-type will be, but any wintry mix is possible...
however, left as snow in the forecast for now. some precipitation
may linger for friday as arctic high pressure moves into the region
and temperatures may settle back down to normal. by saturday, the
extended guidance begins to greatly diverge on the next system and
have left in a generic slight chance to change pop to suffice for
now with temperatures near normal.

&&

.aviation /12z saturday through wednesday/...
swath of light rain/drizzle extends from near mfd to yng early
this morning. this area of precipitation will depart to the east
with additional light precipitation spreading northeast across
the area later this morning into this afternoon. a front is
located across northern ohio and will settle south with time.
precipitation type will range from snow at tol with light
freezing rain likely at fdy, cle, and eri. as the colder air
settles south late this afternoon, a brief window of freezing
rain is also possible at mfd/cak/yng.

low ifr conditions are in place north of the front and will
expand south with time today. ifr expected to continue through
the duration of the taf cycle. winds will be 10 knots or less
and develop out of the north/northeast as the front pushes
south.

outlook...non-vfr continues through sunday. non- vfr possible
next week with reduced vsbys from fog resultant from warmer
temperatures over snow covered areas.

&&

.marine...
a cold front moving southeast of lake erie today will allow for
northerly winds that will meander from due north to northeast later
today to eventually northwest by midday sunday. arctic high pressure
building in behind the cold front for early next week will shift
winds around to the north and then east for monday before flipping
all the way around to the southwest for tuesday. a passing low
pressure system to the north on wednesday will strengthen the
pressure gradient and increase winds out of the southwest to 10 to
20 knots. temperatures will be above normal for mid week but the
lake should remain mostly ice covered for now.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$
synopsis...kec
near term...kec
short term...sefcovic
long term...sefcovic
aviation...kec
marine...sefcovic

Lake Erie

nearshore marine forecast
national weather service cleveland oh
430 am est sat feb 10 2018

for waters within five nautical miles of shore

waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest
1/3 of the wave spectrum. occasional wave height is the average of
the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.

lez142>149-101515-
lake erie nearshore waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from reno beach to the islands oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from the islands to vermilion oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from vermilion to avon point oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from avon point to willowick oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from willowick to geneva-on-
the lake oh-lake erie nearshore waters from geneva-on-the-
lake to conneaut oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from conneaut oh to ripley ny-
430 am est sat feb 10 2018

.today...northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. a chance of a wintry mix
of snow and freezing rain this morning, then a wintry mix of snow,
freezing rain, and rain likely this afternoon. the lake is mostly ice
covered.
.tonight...northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. a chance of freezing
drizzle in the evening.
.sunday...northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. a wintry
mix of freezing rain, snow and sleet likely.
.sunday night...northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. a
chance of freezing rain in the evening.

waves omitted due to the lake being mostly ice covered.

see lake erie open lakes forecast for monday through wednesday.

the water temperature off toledo is 32 degrees...off cleveland 33
degrees and off erie 32 degrees.

Special Weather Statement

For Fulton and Henry counties.

Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
607 AM EST Sat Feb 10 2018

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-
024-025-101400-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-
Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-
White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-
Jay-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-
Allen OH-
Including the cities of Michigan City, La Porte, South Bend,
Mishawaka, New Carlisle, Walkerton, Elkhart, Goshen, Nappanee,
Lagrange, Topeka, Shipshewana, Angola, Fremont, Kendallville,
Ligonier, Albion, Auburn, Garrett, Knox, North Judson, Bass Lake,
Winamac, Francesville, Medaryville, Plymouth, Bremen, Culver,
Rochester, Akron, Warsaw, Winona Lake, Syracuse, Mentone,
Columbia City, Tri-Lakes, South Whitley, Fort Wayne, New Haven,
Monticello, Monon, Brookston, Logansport, Royal Center, Peru,
Grissom AFB, Mexico, Wabash, North Manchester, Huntington,
Roanoke, Bluffton, Ossian, Decatur, Berne, Marion, Gas City,
Upland, Hartford City, Montpelier, Portland, Dunkirk, Bryan,
Edgerton, Wauseon, Archbold, Swanton, Delta, Defiance, Sherwood,
Hicksville, Napoleon, Deshler, Liberty Center, Paulding, Antwerp,
Payne, Ottawa, Leipsic, Columbus Grove, Continental, Pandora,
Van Wert, Ohio City, Lima, and Spencerville
607 AM EST Sat Feb 10 2018 /507 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2018/

...Patchy Light Freezing Drizzle This Morning...

Patchy light freezing drizzle, at times mixed with light snow,
will be possible this morning. This could create slick spots on
untreated roadways and sidewalks.

Travelers this morning should exercise caution and allow extra
travel time to reach their destination.

N. In. NWS HWO

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
336 AM EST Sat Feb 10 2018

INZ018-026-027-032>034-MIZ081-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025-
110845-
Allen IN-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Hillsdale-Williams-
Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
336 AM EST Sat Feb 10 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern Indiana...
northwest Ohio and southwest Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Areas of light snow and perhaps some patchy freezing drizzle will be
possible today, especially during the morning and early afternoon
hours. Snow accumulations up to a half inch will be possible. Little
to no ice accumulation is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A wintry mix of freezing rain, snow, and sleet is expected later
tonight into Sunday. Light snow and ice accumulations will be
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

by JR - 3056 words - 16 min read
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