10 min

Final Day of Winter 2018

created at 12:48 p.m. on Wed, Feb 28, 2018 - It's another mild, late March kind of day. Our temps were in the 50s on Monday and around 60 yesterday. It was sunny both of those days too. Yesterday was breezy but pleasant. The ground is still soggy in some areas from the late February rainfall. Today is in the 50s again under a partly to mostly cloudy sky. Starting tomorrow, our high temps are forecast to be in the upper 30s to mid 40s for the next week. We have a chance for a little snow accumulation tomorrow night. But it has been two weeks since we last had winter weather. The spring bird migration began within the past week.

TOL

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Feb 28, 2018 5:40 am

This Afternoon: Scattered showers. Cloudy, with a high near 55. Southwest wind 7 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Rain, mainly after 11pm. Low around 40. Light and variable wind becoming northeast 6 to 11 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Thursday: Rain. High near 45. East wind 13 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Thursday Night: Rain and snow likely, becoming all snow after 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Blustery, with a northwest wind 17 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 40. Northwest wind 14 to 17 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 24.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 42.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 25.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 43.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 28.

Monday: A chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 46. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday Night: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 44.

Toledo 7-day forecast

Last Update: Feb 28, 2018 5:40 am

This Afternoon: Scattered showers. Cloudy, with a high near 55. Southwest wind 7 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Rain, mainly after 11pm. Low around 40. Light and variable wind becoming northeast 6 to 11 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Thursday: Rain. High near 45. East wind 13 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Thursday Night: Rain and snow likely, becoming all snow after 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Blustery, with a northwest wind 17 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 40. Northwest wind 14 to 17 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 24.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 42.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 25.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 43.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 28.

Monday: A chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 46. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday Night: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 44.

AFD

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
926 am est wed feb 28 2018

.synopsis...
a cold front will move south across lake erie and over the local
area by this evening. the front will stall tonight as an area
or low pressure develops over the lower ohio valley. the low
will move northeast along the stalled front and is expected to
pass just to the south of lake erie late tomorrow and tomorrow
evening. high pressure will begin to build over the region
friday.

&&

.near term /through thursday/...
a swath of clouds and scattered showers will continue to move
east across the area today. expecting warm air advection to take
place as well with temperatures rising into the middle 50s west
and upper 50s elsewhere. forecast looks on track so no major
changes.

previous discussion...

high clouds continue to spread across the local area. some
filtered sunshine is possible through midday or so. regional
radar showing some weak returns over the west end of the area.
given how dry the low levels still are suspect that nothing
more than sprinkles is currently reaching the ground. chances
for precip will gradually increase today and perhaps are best in
the north and northeast. a cold front will move over those
areas later today and that may be enough to kick off some
showers. have actually backed off on precip chances slightly
from the previous forecast with nothing more than 40 percent
chances today. have decided to go with scattered or isolated
wording instead of chance wording. will again trend with the
warmer gfs mos temps today.

all but the gfs continues to track a surface low across the
local area late thursday. the latest gfs is much further north
with the low track than the nam and ecmwf and thus will be
ignored today. precip will break out along a stalled front
tonight and continue through thursday. have slowed down the
spread of the rain tonight and it will likely be daybreak before
the steadier rain reaches nw pa. have adjusted pops accordingly.
thursday will be a wet day and by 00z friday much of the area
may see close to an inch of rainfall. things have dried out
considerably the past couple of days and most locations should
be able to handle this rainfall without difficulty. took a close
look at things and see no need for a thunder mention at this
point.

given the projected low track will trend toward the cooler nam
guidance for highs thursday. will also have to watch wind
speeds tomorrow with a deepening low moving across the area.
could see some gusts above 30 mph by late tomorrow.

&&

.short term /thursday night through saturday night/...
the low reaches western pa and halts thursday night as energy begins
to transfer to the east coast. cold air gets drawn southward on the
backside of the low and expect a transition from rain to snow
thursday night. questions remain on how cold we can get the boundary
layer and how much we can accumulate. focused minor accumulations
across the higher elevation. lighter snow showers will continue into
friday for the cleveland metro area eastward. while not cold enough
for true lake effect, there is a decent amount of cracks and open
water on the east half for enhancement. temperatures will bottom out
in the lower 30s and stick there through friday across the east. it
will be noticeably windy thursday night and into friday making it
feel much colder. across the i-75 corridor highs may climb to near
40 with the ridge just off to the west and the possibility of breaks
in the overcast. biggest change to the forecast was to substantially
increase cloud cover from friday night through saturday night. low
level moisture will likely get trapped under the inversion. with
continued flow off of the lake it will be hard to have sizable
breaks until saturday night/sunday morning. seasonable temperatures
will then continue through the weekend.

&&

.long term /sunday through tuesday/...
upper level ridge across the region sunday night will shift to the
east coast through mid week. that will make the arrival of the next
system delayed until monday night/tuesday and have reflected that in
the precip forecast. temperatures will run a few degrees above
average monday and tuesday.

&&

.aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/...
light radar returns continue across the west end of the area.
these are probably just mid level clouds or perhaps a few
sprinkles. more substantial rain continues to move across
northern in and will likely impact tol and fdy in an hour or two
and perhaps cle toward midday. still expect a weak front to sag
south into the area by the end of the day. that feature could
also kick off some afternoon showers and will go with a vicinity
mention many areas. the main show will begin tonight as low
pressure moves up the oh valley. will time the precip into the
area. it should reach all but eri by 12z thu. mid level cigs
will persist through midday with cigs becoming mvfr all areas by
late afternoon and ifr overnight. s to sw will become light and
variable for a few hours this evening before becoming ne to e
overnight. a few gusts in the 15 to 20 knot range are possible
later today.

outlook...non-vfr continues most of the time wed night into
friday.

&&

.marine...
a weak cold front will sink south across the lake tonight. this will
bring this morning`s southerly flow around to the west-southwest for
much of today. light and variable flow tonight will begin to pick up
out of the northeast rather quickly thursday as a panhandle low
deepens and tracks in the vicinity of the south shore. gale force
winds still a possibility, but believe that chance is greatest
thursday night after the low passes and with the cold advection. so
have winds maxing out at 25 to 30 knots with the northeast flow
ahead of the low and bring in the possibility of gales on the
backside of the system with the north-northwest wind. most guidance
tracks the low across northern oh or the south shore of the lake as
well as our previous forecast and have continued this way. speeds
and direction will be highly impacted by the track and exact timing
of the low. will continue to mention in chance for gales in the
hazardous weather outlook. the low then gets drawn to the east coast
and leaves a trough behind for friday across the eastern lakes.
north-northwest flow will continue and slowly subside through the
weekend. by sunday high pressure centered well north of the lake
will be influencing the lake. expect a ice movement with this system
thursday into friday, pushing it back toward the u.s. shore of far
northeast oh/nw pa.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$
synopsis...kubina
near term...kubina/lombardy
short term...oudeman
long term...oudeman
aviation...kubina
marine...oudeman

by JR - 1807 words - 10 min read
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