34 min

Toledo Weather - Thu, Mar 1, 2018

created at 10:13 a.m. - updated at 4:50 p.m. - After three nice days with temps in the 50s to around 60 degrees and a lot of sunshine, the first day of the meteorological spring is ugly. It's rainy, windy, and chilly with temps in the upper 30s. I've always considered this to be the worst weather conditions to be outdoors, except for disasters, of course. Winter Weather Advisories exists for Monroe and Fulton counties. Areas to the north and west of Toledo might receive 4 to 6 inches of snowfall this afternoon and evening. We might receive one-inch of total snow accumulation as temps fall later today.

4:50 p.m.

Snow ended after 4:30 p.m. Little snow fell this hour. The precip now might be light rain.

Anyway, the winds have increased. Howling, grumbling gusts can be heard.

4:14 p.m.

Light snow fell at 4:00 p.m.

Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
Mar 1, 2018 3:52 pm EST
Weather : Snow Fog
Temperature : 33 F
Humidity : 100%
Wind Speed : N 15 mph - Gust 25 mph
Barometer : 29.69 in
Dewpoint: 33 F
Visibility : 0.50 statute miles
Wind Chill : 23 F

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
(formerly Metcalf Airport)
Mar 1, 2018 3:53 pm EST
Weather : Light Snow Fog/Mist
Temperature : 34 F
Humidity : 92%
Wind Speed : N 18 mph - Gust 30 mph
Barometer : 29.67 in
Dewpoint: 32 F
Visibility : 1.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 23 F

Toledo Suburban Airport (KDUH)
(near Lambertville)
Mar 1, 2018 3:55 pm EST
Weather : Light Snow
Temperature : 32 F
Humidity : 96%
Wind Speed : N 12 mph - Gust 24 mph
Barometer : 29.68 in
Dewpoint: 31 F
Visibility : 1.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 23 F

3:37 p.m.

At 3:15 p.m., it snowed hard, at least moderate intensity. Very large snowflakes or blobs rained down. Lawns and some concrete areas were snow covered.

At 3:37 p.m., it's still snowing hard. The wind is plastering the wet, sticky snow stick to tree branches and anything vertical.

Airports report light snow, but in West Toledo, the snow has been coming down much harder than light for more than 40 minutes.

Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
Mar 1, 2018 2:52 pm EST
Weather : Light Snow Fog/Mist
Temperature : 34 F
Humidity : 100%
Wind Speed : N 13 mph - Gust 18 mph
Barometer : 29.64 in
Dewpoint: 34 F
Visibility : 1.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 25 F

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
(formerly Metcalf Airport)
Mar 1, 2018 2:53 pm EST
Weather : Light Snow Fog/Mist
Temperature : 35 F
Humidity : 89%
Wind Speed : NNE 15 mph - Gust 25 mph
Barometer : 29.63 in
Dewpoint: 32 F
Visibility : 1.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 25 F

Toledo Suburban Airport (KDUH)
(near Lambertville)
Mar 1, 2018 3:15 pm EST
Weather : Light Snow
Temperature : 33 F
Humidity : 92%
Wind Speed : N 10 mph - Gust 21 mph
Barometer : 29.65 in
Dewpoint: 31 F
Visibility : 1.25 statute miles
Wind Chill : 25 F

Flash briefing

The following important weather statements exist: A Wind Advisory. A Lakeshore Flood Warning. A SPC MD 102. A Hazardous Weather Outlook. Visit toledoweather.info for details.

Here are the conditions at Toledo Express Airport as of Mar 1, 2018 2:52 pm. Weather was Light Snow Fog/Mist. Temperature was 34 degrees. Humidity was 100 percent. The wind was from the north at 13 miles per hour. The winds gusted to 18 miles per hour. The wind chill was 25 degrees.

Here is the synopsis from the most recent area forecast discussion. Low pressure will move northeast across the area this afternoon. High pressure will build east across the region Friday through the weekend and then off the east coast by Tuesday. The next area of low pressure will approach from the west on Tuesday.

Here is Toledo's short-term forecast as of Mar 1, 2018 2:36 pm. This Afternoon will be Rain before 4pm, then snow. High near 40. Breezy, with a north wind 18 to 20 miles per hour, with gusts as high as 32 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Tonight will be Snow, mainly before 9pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 29. Blustery, with a northwest wind 15 to 21 miles per hour, with gusts as high as 34 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Friday will be Mostly sunny, with a high near 39. Northwest wind 13 to 16 miles per hour. Friday Night will be Mostly clear, with a low around 23. North wind around 8 miles per hour. Saturday will be Sunny, with a high near 42. North wind around 9 miles per hour.

2:17 p.m.

Snow began falling or mixing with the rain around 2:00 p.m.

A lot happening around mid-day and early this afternoon.

MD

md 0102 concerning heavy snow for portions of southeastern lower mi...far northeastern in...and northwestern oh

mesoscale discussion 0102
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1132 am cst thu mar 01 2018

areas affected...portions of southeastern lower mi...far
northeastern in...and northwestern oh

concerning...heavy snow

valid 011732z - 012330z

summary...moderate rain will quickly transition to moderate/heavy
snow this afternoon. snowfall rates should exceed 1 inch per hour,
and could be locally 2+ inches per hour in the most intense band.

discussion...an area of generally light to moderate rain mixed with
some snow and sleet is ongoing across much of southern lower mi,
northern/central in, and northern oh as of 1730z. strong low-level
frontogenesis is occurring across this region as a mid/upper-level
trough moves eastward across the oh valley. the 12z sounding from
dtx and rap forecast soundings show a nearly saturated profile
through the troposphere. as the mid/upper-level cyclone matures
later this afternoon, both low-level cold air advection and dynamic
cooling are forecast to markedly increase, which will support a
quick transition from rain to snow, even though surface temperatures
may remain in the 32-34 degree f range.

given the strength of low-level frontogenesis and robust lift
expected though the saturated dendritic growth layer, snowfall rates
should exceed 1 inch per hour (locally 2+ inches per hour) for a few
hours this afternoon within the primary heavy snow band. a consensus
of short-term, high-resolution guidance suggests this band will
likely consolidate in a southwest-to-northeast orientation across
southeastern lower mi and far northwestern oh this afternoon into
early evening. a few recent sleet and rain/snow mix observations
from surface stations and mping reports suggest the transition to
snow is already occurring, and this changeover to snow will continue
over the next few hours.

..gleason.. 03/01/2018

...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

attn...wfo...cle...dtx...iwx...grr...

lat...lon 42608495 42878424 42928324 42828239 42588245 42248277
41978286 41808245 41528223 41228256 41108323 41188419
41568506 41968531 42608495

Wind Advisory

urgent - weather message
national weather service cleveland oh
1145 am est thu mar 1 2018

ohz003-007>014-019>023-029>033-037-038-047-089-paz001>003-020045-
/o.new.kcle.wi.y.0002.180301t2100z-180302t0900z/
lucas-ottawa-sandusky-erie-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
ashtabula inland-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull-richland-
ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-morrow-holmes-knox-
ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie-crawford-
including the cities of toledo, port clinton, fremont, sandusky,
lorain, cleveland, mentor, chardon, jefferson, norwalk, medina,
akron, ravenna, warren, mansfield, ashland, wooster, canton,
youngstown, mount gilead, millersburg, mount vernon, ashtabula,
erie, edinboro, and meadville
1145 am est thu mar 1 2018

...wind advisory in effect from 4 pm this afternoon to 4 am est
friday...

the national weather service in cleveland has issued a wind
advisory, which is in effect from 4 pm this afternoon to 4 am est
friday.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

a wind advisory is issued for sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph or
gusts between 46 and 57 mph. winds of this magnitude can cause
minor property damage without extra precautions. motorists should
use caution especially motorists in high profile vehicles.

Lakeshore Flood Warning

lakeshore hazard message
national weather service cleveland oh
211 pm est thu mar 1 2018

ohz003-007-009-020300-
/o.con.kcle.ls.w.0001.000000t0000z-180302t0300z/
lucas-ottawa-erie-
211 pm est thu mar 1 2018

...lakeshore flood warning remains in effect until 10 pm est this
evening...

precautionary/preparedness actions...

a lakeshore flood warning is issued when flooding is occurring or
imminent along the lake. residents on or near the shore in the
warned area should take immediate action to protect life and
property.

Airports around 2pm

Toledo Suburban Airport reports light snow.

Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
Mar 1, 2018 1:52 pm EST
Weather : Rain Fog/Mist
Temperature : 35 F
Humidity : 100%
Wind Speed : N 16 mph
Barometer : 29.64 in
Dewpoint: 35 F
Visibility : 2.50 statute miles
Wind Chill : 25 F

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
(formerly Metcalf Airport)
Mar 1, 2018 1:53 pm EST
Weather : Light Rain Fog/Mist and Breezy
Temperature : 36 F
Humidity : 89%
Wind Speed : NE 24 mph - Gust 41 mph
Barometer : 29.61 in
Dewpoint: 33 F
Visibility : 2.50 statute miles
Wind Chill : 24 F

Toledo Suburban Airport (KDUH)
(near Lambertville)
Mar 1, 2018 1:56 pm EST
Weather : Light Snow
Temperature : 34 F
Humidity : 92%
Wind Speed : NNE 8 mph - Gust 16 mph
Barometer : 29.65 in
Dewpoint: 32 F
Visibility : 2.50 statute miles
Wind Chill : 27 F

Forecast as of early p.m.

Toledo - Last Update: Mar 1, 2018 1:36 pm

This Afternoon: Rain before 4pm, then rain and snow. High near 40. Breezy, with a north wind 18 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Tonight: Snow, mainly before 9pm. Low around 30. Blustery, with a northwest wind 15 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 38. Northwest wind 13 to 16 mph.

HWO

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
259 am est thu mar 1 2018

ohz003-006>011-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-020800-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie-lorain-cuyahoga-hancock-seneca-huron-
medina-summit-portage-trumbull-wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-
wayne-stark-mahoning-marion-morrow-holmes-knox-
259 am est thu mar 1 2018

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio, northeast
ohio and northwest ohio.

.day one...today and tonight.

more moderate to locally heavy rain is expected today. some areas
could see an inch of rain which could lead to minor flooding
problems.

.days two through seven...friday through wednesday.

no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Airports around 10am

Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
Mar 1, 2018 9:52 am
Weather : Rain Fog/Mist
Temperature : 38 F
Humidity : 100%
Wind Speed : ENE 20 mph - Gust 29 mph
Barometer : 29.71 in
Dewpoint: 38 F
Visibility : 2.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 28 F

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
(formerly Metcalf Airport)
Mar 1, 2018 9:53 am
Weather : Light Rain Fog/Mist and Breezy
Temperature : 36 F
Humidity : 89%
Wind Speed : ENE 21 mph - Gust 29 mph
Barometer : 29.72 in
Dewpoint: 33 F
Visibility : 2.50 statute miles
Wind Chill : 25 F

Toledo Suburban Airport (KDUH)
(near Lambertville)
Mar 1, 2018 9:55 am
Weather : Rain
Temperature : 36 F
Humidity : 94%
Wind Speed : ENE 10 mph - Gust 20 mph
Barometer : 29.73 in
Dewpoint: 34 F
Visibility : 2.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 29 F

Images

Toledo 7-day forecast

Last Update: Mar 1, 2018 6:03 am

Today: Rain before 4pm, then rain and snow. High near 40. Northeast wind 13 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Tonight: Snow likely, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Northwest wind 11 to 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 38. Northwest wind 13 to 16 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 23. North wind around 9 mph.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 42. North wind 8 to 10 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 23.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 43.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 27.

Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 46.

Monday Night: Showers likely, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tuesday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday Night: A chance of rain and snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday: A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Fulton County WWA

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
403 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

INZ007-MIZ080-081-OHZ001-002-011715-
/O.EXT.KIWX.WW.Y.0014.180301T1700Z-180302T0400Z/
Steuben-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-
Including the cities of Angola, Fremont, Coldwater, Bronson,
Hillsdale, Jonesville, Litchfield, Bryan, Montpelier, Edgerton,
Wauseon, Archbold, Swanton, and Delta
403 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM
EST THIS EVENING...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

Monroe County WWA

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
340 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

...WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...

MIZ075-076-082-083-012100-
/O.NEW.KDTX.WW.Y.0008.180301T1800Z-180302T0900Z/
Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
Including the cities of Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe
340 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
4 AM EST FRIDAY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

Cle AFD

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
942 am est thu mar 1 2018

.synopsis...
low pressure will move northeast across the area this afternoon.
high pressure will build east across the region friday through
the weekend and then off the east coast by tuesday. the next
area of low pressure will approach from the west on tuesday.

&&

.near term /through friday/...
short term models still on track with center of the low moving
northeast and passing in the vicinity of youngstown this
afternoon. rain associated with the low pressure system will
continue to fill in over northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania up over lake erie and then back west and remaining
north of the forecast area with time this afternoon. colder air
will begin to pull back west into the forecast area later this
afternoon into tonight. models all differ in timing of the 850
mb temperatures dropping below zero so change over to snow
timing still in question. will be monitoring dual pol radar for
transition timing this afternoon. made minor changes to hourly
temperatures to reflect slightly cooler air across the north in
the northeast flow.

original discussion...
a surface low will cut across central ohio this afternoon
bringing widespread precipitation to the region. rain will
continue to spread across the cwa from southwest to northeast
this morning with widespread rain affecting everyone by this
afternoon. winds will turn to the northeast in the
afternoon/evening north of the low track, eventually veering to
the north-northwest by tonight. wind gusts to 40 mph are
expected on the back side of the low, strongest near the lake
shore.

rain will begin to change over to snow late this afternoon
across northwest ohio. this transition will happen quickly as
cold air aloft moves in this evening. rain should change over to
snow this evening in northwest pennsylvania, where a winter
storm watch remains in effect from late this evening into
friday afternoon. southeastern portions of the cwa will be last
to change over to snow as this area will be south of the track
of the low.

with a wet ground and very marginal surface temperatures, only
an inch or two of snow is expected to accumulate across the
western half of ohio. less than an inch of snow is expected to
accumulate on grassy and elevated surfaces across far southern
and southeastern areas. the best accumulating snow will fall
across the snowbelt where anywhere from 3 to 6 inches of snow is
expected across parts of northeast ohio and up to 8 inches of
snow is possible across inland erie county in northwest
pennsylvania. surface temperatures will still be marginal across
this region, but heavy precipitation rates should be able to
offset that enough for good accumulation to occur.

with the latest ecmwf run coming in even farther south with the
track of the surface low, there remains enough uncertainty in
the forecast to hold off on upgrading the winter storm watch to
a warning at this time. winter weather advisories may also be
needed across portions of the snowbelt in northeast ohio, but
will hold off issuing these for now until the morning crew can
take a look at the newest guidance.

some lake-effect snow will continue into friday across portions
of northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania. the snow should
largely dwindle down to just a few flurries by friday evening
as high pressure begins to move in from the west.

&&

.short term /friday night through sunday night/...
by the start of the period high pressure will be building over the
region from the northwest. northerly flow will be ongoing but the
lower levels of the atmosphere will quickly dry out friday night and
early saturday. some residual lake effect snow showers could be
ongoing friday evening in nw pa but little accumulation is
expected. will end the precip completely by 12z saturday. the
weekend will be cool but there should be a lot of sunshine.
sunday night will also remain quiet with low temps again well
into the 20s.

&&

.long term /monday through wednesday/...
the period will start off quiet but another strong area of low
pressure is expected to impact the region later in the period. the
new 00z guidance is similar tracking low pressure across the
southern lakes tuesday into wednesday. precip from this system
will begin to arrive monday night with better chances for precip
tuesday and tuesday night. on wednesday the surface low will
jump to the east coast but some wrap around moisture behind the
system will likely bring more showers. temps during the period
should be warm enough for an all rain event. temps monday and
tuesday will be above normal with a return to seasonable temps
by wednesday.

&&

.aviation /12z thursday through monday/...
poor aviation conditions expected today into tonight. widespread
ifr/lifr conditions are in place to start the taf cycle across
western terminals. the vfr/mvfr conditions across eastern
terminals will quickly deteriorate to ifr/lifr conditions later
this morning and remain that way through the taf forecast
period. widespread rain is expected today. the rain will change
over to snow later this afternoon across western areas and this
evening into early tonight elsewhere. snow will be heavy at
times, especially across the snowbelt. conditions will improve
across western terminals after 06z friday with vfr conditions
returning.

winds will steadily increase through this morning before rapidly
ramping up this afternoon into tonight as a low passes through
the area. winds will shift to the northeast and then the north-
northwest this afternoon through tonight. widespread gusts to
30-35 knots are expected.

outlook...non-vfr continues on friday.

&&

.marine...
after coordination with buf and dtx will go ahead and issue a gale
for the entire lake beginning late this afternoon. will have a
pretty decent setup with an area of deepening low pressure
passing just to the southeast of the lake. the strongest winds
will likely be across the central basin with ne flow becoming nw
by daybreak friday. speeds will begin to diminish after 06z so
the gale will be short lived. high pressure will build over the
region over the weekend with moderate north winds continuing
into early sunday. the surface ridge will cross the lake by
early monday allowing the flow to take on a southerly component.
southerly winds will continue on monday in advance of the next
storm system.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...winter storm watch from 9 pm est this evening through friday
afternoon for paz001-002.
marine...gale warning from 4 pm this afternoon to 4 am est friday for
lez142>149-162>169.

&&

$$
synopsis...mottice
near term...lombardy/mottice
short term...kubina
long term...kubina
aviation...mottice
marine...kubina

N. IN. NWS

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
455 am est thu mar 1 2018

.synopsis...
issued at 600 am est thu mar 1 2018

a surface low will track through central indiana and move to
northeast ohio by this evening as it deepens considerably. expect
occasional rain through midday with even a small chance of a
thunderstorm, primarily along and south of route 30. falling
temperatures as this system moves eastward will allow the rain to
mix with and change to snow this afternoon. the snow will be
heaviest over south central michigan, northwest ohio, and into
extreme northeast indiana, where 4 to 6 inches are possible by
late this evening. thereafter, an extended period of dry weather
friday into monday morning with seasonable temperatures can be
expected.

&&

.short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 443 am est thu mar 1 2018

multifaceted/very complex forecast in near term with sharp change
made during the forecast process. morning to midday rainfall with
slight potential thunderstorms across southern cwa within
collocated area of increasing mid level fgen and mucape on order
100-200 j/kg. overall however, total rainfall amounts a bit less
and resulting in a lesser hydrologic concern for renewed
major/extreme flooding on area rivers. at most it appears runoff
will only serve to slow the rate of river level falls into next
week.

phasing of northern ohio valley wave with northern manitoba cyclone
to lend strengthening mid level height falls to 100m/12 hr plus over
south central indiana. with earlier rap/hrrr strong outliers and now
06 utc nam coming into agreement have sided with strong/more dynamic
system. furthermore latest development of 1.5 mb/3 hr pressure falls
over central indiana appear to favor northern push away from ohio
valley convection and subsequent deepening of surface cyclone.
initial morning to midday strong i300k tapping over 4isentropic
lift 4 g/kg that surges northeast along/south of us 24 through
midday. wrapped moisture and strong thermal collapse in wake of
surface low peeling eastward through ohio will spurn changeover with
heightened focus on northeast cwa. here 3-4 g/kg on i290 surface
with developing/lingering trowal per 08 utc rap13, while not well
defined, hinted to trail into northeast indiana. have issued an
advisory for northeast cwa with 4 to 6 inches in relative short
window with potential highest rates over early/mid part of evening
commute. confidence low at this time and later adjustments in
area/accums are quite possible.

&&

.long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 443 am est thu mar 1 2018

little change to latest model blend with most focus on near/short
term. ohio/western pa cyclone to undergo coastal handoff tonight
into friday. an extended dry/snowball period friday into early
monday with ridging surface/aloft. next system currently of wa/or
coast finally moves eastward into midwest/western upper great
lakes with high potential rainfall monday afternoon/night. short
duration of gulf feed may be saving grace away from extreme
rainfall amounts early next week. rain chance extends into tue and
middle of next week. rain may mix with/change to snow dependent
on diurnal temperature variation.

&&

.aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z friday morning)
issued at 600 am est thu mar 1 2018

sfc wave over wrn in at this hour will rapidly deepen into ern oh by
evening. vast and ramping moisture advection in progress across the
area with well defined mid level deformation zone already from nrn
through wrn il. this will shift ewd late morning across the ksbn
terminal and early aftn invof kfwa with a period of mod-hvy rain and
perhaps some mix to snow possible pending thickness collapse within
very strong/deep vertical motion plume.

otherwise gusty winds backing north and increasing to near 25kts for
a time this aftn as sfc low pulls east.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...winter weather advisory from noon today to 11 pm est this
evening for inz007.

mi...winter weather advisory from noon today to 11 pm est this
evening for miz080-081.

oh...winter weather advisory from noon today to 11 pm est this
evening for ohz001-002.

lm...small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 5 pm est friday
for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

synopsis...murphy
short term...murphy
long term...murphy
aviation...t

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www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
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Det/Pon NWS

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
644 am est thu mar 1 2018

.aviation...

extensive area of precipitation set to expand across southeast
michigan today, north of strengthening low pressure tracking through
the ohio valley. precipitation will begin as plain rain, but expect
a progressive transition to a mix and then snow from ptk northward
through early afternoon given the existing marginal thermal profile.
slightly warmer early day temperatures will support a longer duration
of plain rain across the detroit corridor, before shifting to snow
by late afternoon. potential for a period of lifr conditions in
heavy, wet snow at all terminals, but with higher likelihood at
fnt/ptk this afternoon and evening. gusty northerly conditions
through the event, peaking in the 25 knot range. snowfall tapers
off 03z-06z, leaving a lingering lower stratus for the latter half of
the night.

for dtw...precipitation type expected to hold as plain rain through
the first half of the day. the intensity of the rain will increase
into early afternoon. a transition toward heavy wet snow is most
likely during the late afternoon and early evening hours /22z- 02z/.
potential for a period of lifr conditions with visibility at/below
1/2 mile during this time. the intensity of the snow is expected to
decrease after 02z, with it ending shortly after midnight. peak
snowfall intensity in excess of a half inch per hour are possible.

/dtw threshold probabilities...

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 345 am est thu mar 1 2018

discussion...

near term / today through tonight

winter storm warnings and advisories now in effect for much of
southeast michigan today into tonight...

as of 345 am est...the challenging forecast regarding the low
pressure system set to impact southeast michigan today is finally
coming into better focus, although uncertainty still exists.
however, increasing forecast confidence coupled with potential
significant impacts for the evening commute has warranted the
issuance of a winter storm warning for livingston and oakland
counties, with a winter weather advisory in effect for the rest of
southeast michigan excluding midland, bay, and huron counties at
this time.

latest water vapor imagery reveals a strongly dynamic system taking
shape across the ohio/tennessee river valleys early this morning, as
1005 hpa low pressure continues to track northeastward near the i-70
corridor. strong moisture transport along the lingering cold front
boundary that slowly moved south overnight will allow copious
amounts of moisture to move into the region. specific humidities in
the lowest levels with this system will be quite robust, with 5+
g/kg pushing into southwest lower michigan, with 2-4 g/kg reaching
southeast michigan. further adding to the moisture transport,
consisting of a significant gulf of mexico component, is an
impressive upper-level jet (170 kt) moving overhead, with southeast
michigan increasingly located in the right entrance region as we
head through the morning hours. as a result, increasing qg lift and
isentropic ascent will lead to widespread rain developing from
southwest to northeast this morning. latest timing is roughly 4-7am
for precip onset.

as the morning progresses, the deepening low will interact with fast-
moving northern stream energy diving southeast from the upper
midwest. increasingly confluent flow in the low-levels will help to
develop strong fgen forcing across lower michigan, which will lead
to enhanced precipitation rates, with rainfall being locally heavy
at times from the m-59 corridor and points south. further north,
especially across the northern thumb and northern saginaw valley,
qpf amounts and rain chances will be hampered by the fgen band,
which may rob the transport of higher specific humidity air across
these areas. placement of this band looks to be from a line
extending from lansing to pontiac.

later this morning and into the early afternoon, rain will begin to
transition to snow, with a complex scenario setting up. surface
temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s across most areas
except towards the ohio border where high temperatures look to peak
around 40. with the heavier precip rates ongoing, coupled with the
maximized fgen lift in the low-levels, diabatic cooling processes
look to be a significant factor in the cooling of the boundary
layer, as wet bulbing quickly lowers surface temperatures the
critical few degrees to promote a transition to snow. adding
confidence in this scenario will be strong dynamical cooling also
taking place as phasing begins to occur between the approaching
northern stream pv energy and southern stream energy. this will
allow the low to continue deepening to 992-994 hpa as it reaches the
youngstown area by 00z. the ageostrophic response will allow for an
enhanced easterly u-component to the wind as depicted in
standardized anomaly data, which will strengthen the northeasterly
flow in place, especially below 800 hpa. an increasing negative tilt
to the northern stream trough will also aid in wrapping the system`s
cold conveyer belt into the region. latest water vapor analysis
reveals stronger energy with the northern stream wave, which may
intensify the system further than current model projections.

timing for the rain to snow transition looks to occur roughly
between 10am-2pm for the m-59 corridor and points north, with the
diabatic cooling leading to a slightly earlier transition time for
these areas. further south of the glacial ridge towards the detroit
metro and points south, transition to snow looks to occur roughly in
the 2-5pm as a warmer boundary layer lingers just a bit longer. this
timing may still be better refined this morning as observational
trends are analyzed. once the transition is complete (there may be 1-
2 hour periods early in the transition phase where precip is
rain/snow then snow, possibly briefly back to rain, then finally
snow), snow looks to be heavy at times with maximized mesoscale
forcing in place coupled with increasing deformation aloft. heaviest
snow rates look to peak mid afternoon through early evening and
could be in excess of an inch per hour in spots. all areas look to
fully change over to snow by 00z, with continued accumulations
through roughly midnight as deformation forcing swings through. will
have to watch closely where the pivot point occurs as additional
banding could lead to higher snow totals north or south.

with the plentiful moisture in place and near to slightly above
freezing surface temperatures, the density of the snow will be
wetter than usual, but taking on drier characteristics after 00z as
colder air filters in. despite the lower snow ratios, model guidance
is in fairly good agreement with overall qpf amounts, which will
range from 0.25-0.75 of an inch i-69 corridor north, with a swath of
1-1.5 inches from the m-59 corridor south. the bulk of the qpf will
be spent on rain, especially for southern locations, but there will
still be plenty to work with for moderate to heavy snowfall
accumulations.

latest thinking is for 5-9 inches of snow in livingston and oakland
counties, perhaps reaching into portions of southern shiawassee and
genesee counties or northern washtenaw and wayne counties. elsewhere
in the advisory area, 3-6 inches is in play. will need to closely
monitor hi-res guidance through the morning though, as there are
signals for even heavier qpf amounts (e.g. rap in excess of 1.5
inches), which could lead to significantly higher totals than
currently forecast. there remains uncertainty in these snow totals,
and they may still be refined as mesoscale feature placement is
better defined. regardless, accumulating snowfall that will impact
the evening commute will occur, with the potential for significant
amounts somewhere in the vicinity of the m-59 corridor. further
expansion of the warning may be needed later today depending on the
mesoscale factors mentioned above.

short term / friday through sunday night

friday will begin the start of a tranquil period of weather
continuing through the weekend as high pressure and upper-level
ridging build across the region. an increasingly amplified pattern
aloft will allow the ridging to strengthen as the weekend
progresses, and with plenty of dry air in place through the column,
little cloud cover will occur throughout the period. temperatures
will trend towards normal, with highs ranging from the mid 30s to
low 40s and lows generally in the 20s.

long term / monday through wednesday

inbound pacific energy will allow for longwave troughing across the
intermountain west to amplify sunday and into monday, spawning lee
cyclogenesis in the central plains. this low pressure system will
track northeast towards the region late monday into monday night,
with a cold front crossing monday night. rain should start at the
onset, but colder air filtering in from the north will allow for a
transition to snow as the system stalls and a cutoff low develops.
this system looks to linger near the region through the middle of
next week with scattered rain/snow showers. temperatures will
continue to remain around normal for early march.

marine...

low pressure system will strengthen as it tracks across the ohio
valley. this will bring a corresponding increase in northeast winds
throughout the central great lakes north of this system. latest
forecast information suggests gusts will largely remain below gales
over lake huron. this will preclude an upgrade to warning conditions
across this corridor. substantial wave growth will occur across the
western lake huron basin and into the nearshore waters given
prolonged onshore flow and favorable fetch. this will lead to an
extended period of small craft advisory conditions for high waves.
moderate northerly winds will continue through friday as the
gradient only slowly relaxes with the departure of this system.
lighter winds heading into the weekend as high pressure takes
control.

hydrology...

a low pressure system will track through the ohio valley today
bringing the next opportunity for widespread precipitation to the
region. this precipitation will start as rain this morning before
transitioning to a rain/snow mix and eventually all snow during the
afternoon and evening hours. the highest liquid equivalent
precipitation amounts are expected south of the m-59 corridor where
up to 1.5 inches can be expected. amounts north of this corridor
then decrease with northward extent, generally within the
25 to 1 inch range. runoff from this precipitation may either slow
the fall of river levels or bring some renewed minor flooding. in
addition, some minor flooding of poor drainage, low lying and other
typically prone locations across the urban corridor will be
possible.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...winter weather advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 4 am est friday
for miz075-076-082-083.

winter weather advisory from 10 am this morning to 4 am est friday
for miz053>055-060>063-070.

winter storm warning from 10 am this morning to 4 am est friday for
miz068-069.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 pm est friday for lhz421-441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...gale warning from 4 pm this afternoon to 4 am est friday for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...irl
marine.......mr
hydrology....mr

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.
The three regional National Weather Service offices that cover the Toledo area include Cleveland, Detroit/Pontiac, and Northern Indiana.

by JR - 6179 words - 34 min read
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