19 min

Final Post for the 2017-2018 Season

created at 8:53 a.m. on Tue, Apr 3, 2018 - updated at Noon - This might be the final post. Below normal cold, however, is forecast for days after today. It has been weeks between posts. March 2018 might have been one of the most stable March months in recent memory. The consistency was surprising. High temps in the 30s and 40s and low temps in the 20s with a good bit of sunshine and dry.

In the first half of March, we had occasional snow squalls, mainly north of Toledo. We received over one-inch of rainfall over the final days of March. This past winter produced average or below average snowfall, but we had good periods of cold weather. The season was more winter-like than the previous two seasons. We have a chance for severe thunderstorms today.

12:00 p.m.

Our weather is still heavy low overcast/fog and drizzle with temps still hovering in the upper 30s to around 40.

Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
Apr 3, 2018 11:52 am
Weather : Fog/Mist
Temperature : 40 F
Humidity : 100%
Wind Speed : E 13 mph
Barometer : 29.76 in
Dewpoint: 40 F
Visibility : 3.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 32 F

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
(formerly Metcalf Airport)
Apr 3, 2018 11:53 am
Weather : Fog/Mist
Temperature : 40 F
Humidity : 93%
Wind Speed : E 13 mph
Barometer : 29.78 in
Dewpoint: 38 F
Visibility : 3.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 32 F

Toledo Suburban Airport (KDUH)
(near Lambertville)
Apr 3, 2018 11:35 am
Weather : Fog/Mist
Temperature : 37 F
Humidity : 95%
Wind Speed : E 8 mph
Barometer : 29.78 in
Dewpoint: 36 F
Visibility : 1.50 statute miles
Wind Chill : 31 F

I-75 corridor temps:


The blob is slowly drifting northward. We'll receive more rain this afternoon. Thunderstorms have formed over Indiana and western Ohio.


The northern third of the lower peninsula of Michigan is under a Winter Storm Warning.


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1110 AM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018

MIZ016>024-026>030-032>034-032315-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-180404T1200Z/
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-
Montmorency-Alpena-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-
Including the cities of Petoskey, Cheboygan, Rogers City,
Charlevoix, Northport, Mancelona, Gaylord, Atlanta, Alpena,
Traverse City, Kalkaska, Grayling, Mio, Harrisville, Cadillac,
Lake City, and Houghton Lake
1110 AM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency.


8:53 a.m. notes cont.

Yesterday morning, our temps bottomed out in the low to mid 20s.

Toledo Express Airport (KTOL) Apr 2, 2018 7:52 am
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 22 F
Humidity : 78%
Wind Speed : Calm
Barometer : 30.16 in
Dewpoint: 16 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
External Link : 3-day history

Toledo Suburban Airport (KDUH)
(near Lambertville)
Apr 2, 2018 7:55 am
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 21 F
Humidity : 83%
Wind Speed : Calm
Barometer : 30.16 in
Dewpoint: 17 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
page created: Apr 02, 2018 - 7:15 a.m. EDT

We can still dip into the 20s at times in April and the 30s in early May.

And of course snowfall of several inches is possible too.

Yesterday afternoon, the Storm Prediction Center showed Ohio under a Slight Risk for severe weather today. That forecast continues as of this morning with the southwest quarter of Ohio under an Enhanced Risk. The northern edge of the Slight Risk ends at the Ohio-Michigan border.

HWO

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
525 am edt tue apr 3 2018

ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-040930-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull-
wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-marion-morrow-
holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie-
525 am edt tue apr 3 2018

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio, northeast
ohio, northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.day one...today and tonight.

thunderstorms will develop today as a warm front moves north into
the area. a cold front will follow from the west this evening.
the storm prediction center has indicated that there is a slight
chance that some storms will become severe this afternoon and this
evening. the greatest threat will be strong damaging winds however an
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

.days two through seven...wednesday through monday.

no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.

SPC

day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0752 am cdt tue apr 03 2018

valid 031300z - 041200z

...there is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms from parts of
the mid-south region across parts of the ohio valley region...

...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms surrounding the
enhanced risk and extending to southeast texas...

...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms surrounding the
slight risk...

...summary...
an enhanced threat for thunderstorm-wind damage and tornadoes exists
over parts of the ohio valley and mid-south regions.

...synopsis...
in mid/upper levels, a broadly cyclonic pattern will be restored
over much of the central u.s. this period, mainly because of height
falls related to a strong shortwave trough now apparent in
moisture-channel imagery over the northern/central high plains.
this perturbation should strengthen gradually as it moves roughly
eastward through the period. by 00z, the trough should extend from
parts of mn/ia southwestward over ks. by 12z, it should reach lower
mi, northern in, southern il and the mid-south.

at the surface, 11z analysis showed a frontal-wave low over eastern
ks, with cold front southwestward across northwestern ok and the tx
panhandle. a warm front was drawn from the low eastward over
central mo, southern il, central in, and east-central ky. the warm
front, reinforced baroclinically by extensive convective precip now
to its north over portions of il/in/oh, should move northeastward
across southern/central parts of il/in/oh through the day, perhaps
reaching northern in and west-central/northwestern oh.
uncertainties in warm-frontal position still exist due to strength/
timing of the retreat of the stable air produced by that precip.
the surface cyclone should deepen through the period as it ejects
northeastward, reaching northeastern in by 00z and lake ontario by
12z. the trailing cold front will sweep eastward/southeastward
across the outlook areas, reaching portions of in, western ky,
eastern/southern ar, and south-central tx by 00z. by 12z, the cold
front should extend from parts of western/central pa down the blue
ridge area to northern ga, southern al, and the northwestern gulf.

...ohio valley to tx coastal plain...
scattered to locally numerous thunderstorms, mainly in broken to
solid bands, are expected to develop along and ahead of the surface
cold front beginning around midday and lasting into tonight. as
this convection crosses the outlook area, all modes of severe will
be possible from a blend of qlcs features (lewps/bows), embedded
supercells, and perhaps a few discrete to semi-discrete supercells
ahead of the main line. the main threat in a coverage/duration
sense still is damaging wind, especially over the enhanced-risk
area.

within that, however, an enhanced afternoon/evening tornado risk
also is becoming apparent from the region of the progressive warm
frontal zone into in/oh, southwestward to the mo bootheel area.
tornado risk appears most concentrated in a northeastward-aligned
corridor where at least a brief window is apparent for discrete or
line-embedded supercells to encounter a favorable cape-shear
parameter space. this includes:
1. a higher-buoyancy, strong deep-shear regime around the mo
bootheel and western ky, as well as
2. farther up the ohio valley where the main convective maturation
area will encounter relatively backed near-surface winds and quite
large srh/hodographs in the vicinity of the warm-frontal zone, and
somewhat into the warm sector, southeast of the surface low.
forecast soundings suggest a gradual transition from larger midlevel
lapse rates with higher cape and lower (but still favorable) shear
in the southwest half of the severe-outlook corridor to lower-cape/
high-shear regime over the ohio valley. surface-based effective-
inflow parcels, low lcl and effective srh 400-600 j/kg may develop
amidst 800-1500 j/kg mlcape, based on modified forecast soundings.

the addition of enhanced-level tornado probabilities is the main
update to the outlook for now. a few significant tornadoes may
occur as well, especially near the warm-frontal zone and western
part of the enhanced-risk area where relatively discrete convection
is more probable. should potential for longer-lived supercells and/
or more-sustained bowing structures become apparent, categorical
upgrade to moderate-level wind or tornado probabilities may be
needed in a future update. for now, a little too much mode/
longevity uncertainty still exists to support such a jump.

otherwise, relatively minor adjustments have been made to
accommodate forecast convection initiation/maturity potential as
well as eastern/southern extent of evening/overnight potential from
the appalachians to the gulf coast.

..edwards/broyles.. 04/03/2018

click to get wuus01 ptsdy1 product

note: the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1630z

Toledo 7-day forecast

Yesterday's forecast predicted temps near 60 for today. That has come down significantly. High temps north of Detroit are forecast to be in the 30s today. Maybe the cooler air is forecast to drop a bit further south today than originally expected.

Light rain moved through the area before sunrise today. This morning is overcast with a low cloud base. Almost high fog-like. We enjoyed a lot of sunny, dry, and cool days in March. The upcoming forecast is similar to what we experienced for much of March. I wonder if last month was a good one for the local maple syrup producers.

The radar at about 9am today showed a lot of moderate to heavy rainfall moving west to east through much of central Ohio. Only the southern tip of Ohio and the northwest corner of Ohio, including Toledo, were not receiving rainfall. Flooding-related headlines exist for many counties in the central one-third of Ohio.


Last Update: Apr 3, 2018 5:57 am

Today: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 3pm, then showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. High near 51. East wind 7 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 2am. Low around 33. South wind 7 to 12 mph becoming west 13 to 18 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Wednesday: A chance of rain and snow showers before 7am, then a chance of snow showers between 7am and 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 38. Windy, with a west wind 23 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. West wind 13 to 18 mph decreasing to 7 to 12 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 28 mph.

Thursday: A chance of showers after 3pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 42. West wind 9 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Thursday Night: Rain showers likely before 3am, then snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Friday: Snow showers likely before 9am. Partly sunny, with a high near 39. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 22.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 38.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 24.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 42.

Sunday Night: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Monday: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 46. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

AFD

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
635 am edt tue apr 3 2018

.synopsis...
low pressure will move from the central plains to northwest
ohio and southern lower michigan today driving a warm front
north into the region. the low will continue northeast this
evening forcing a strong trailing cold front east across the
area. high pressure will build over the region for the middle
part of the week.

&&

.near term /through wednesday/...
update...increased pops early as showers have spread across much
of the area already. otherwise no big changes.

original...radar shows light rain showers expanding in coverage
across the area. further southwest, thunderstorms fro southwest
oh west into central il working ene and, based on current
timing, they should be close to or into our srn/swrn counties by
10-12z. will have categorical pops southwest expanding to most
all the area through the morning. will have chance thunder at
this point. for the afternoon will remove limiting chance
qualifier as warm front pushes north into the area, temps push
60 and capes reach 1000-1500 j/kg. for late afternoon we could
see breaks in the clouds south and southeast as warm sector
overtakes the area. this evening the low will continue northeast
from northeast oh/srn lwr mi. this will drag the cold front
east across the area through the evening and early overnight
from roughly 03z through 08z west to east. expecting
thunderstorms to develop along and ahead of the front as least
afternoon through early evening as href ensembles show a rapid
decrease in capes through the early evening. high rez ensembles
also agree with numerical guidance showing a brief window early
this evening when southwest winds approach advisory criteria.
will need to monitor this through the day shift for possible
wind advisory. models show a distinct dry slow behind the
boundary and have dropped pops accordingly behind the front.
wednesday the low moves into quebec while cold air continues to
spill into the with 850mb temps by evening falling to -10 to
-12c. western and southern counties stay out of the best wrap
around moisture but north/northeast will have a couple waves of
moisture move through. in addition bufkit shows conditional
instability to the lake. evaluating the lake effect potential,
first, boundary layer winds to 850mb are 40 to 50 knots which
will limit moisture flux. however synoptic moisture and lift is
very good through the mixed layer. also we should have dendritic
growth. all said, will have chance pops through the morning
increasing to likely in the afternoon as temps aloft cool. will
have rain at first with a transition to snow late
afternoon/early evening. at this point no sig accums through 00z
thursday.

&&

.short term /wednesday night through friday night/...
upper level pattern indicative of a winter type flow rather than an
early april flow. deep digging upper level trough will affect much
of the eastern united states through thursday. the upper level
trough becomes negatively tilted on wednesday causing surface low to
track northeast and intensify rapidly today through wednesday. the
low is expected to move across southern lower michigan to just north
of lake erie. this will force the strong cold front to move east
across the local area wednesday setting up a west to northwest flow
across the area for wednesday night. strong cold air advection will
take place wednesday night plunging temperatures well into the 20s
at the surface. this will return the forecast area into winter
conditions wednesday night. the synoptic moisture will lift up to
the northeast and help support lake effect snow. the rest of the
forecast area should see a return back to fair weather wednesday
night.

flow is expected to be well aligned over the lake but residence time
over the water may be limited by wind speeds. however, with synoptic
moisture support in combination with conditional instability and
inversion up around 8000 feet descending to 6000 feet wednesday
night, i anticipate a west to east convergence zone will develop
over northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania. if the band sets up
as expected, there is the possibility for localized higher amounts
of snow. in general, within the band expecting up to 4 to 5 inches
of snow wednesday night. shear develops toward sunrise and this
will help break up the band and threat for lake effect snow showers
thursday morning.

fair weather persists through the morning hours thursday over much
of the area and then the next storm system will approach the area
for thursday afternoon and thursday night. rain or a rain/snow mix
will spread east across the area and be mostly snow for thursday
night with the mix expected friday. the light snow will exit to the
east friday night as low pressure moves east of the area. some lake
effect snow is also possible friday night in the wake of the low
pressure system. otherwise, fair weather advancing in from the west
elsewhere.

some rapid changes in temperatures are expected over the next
several periods with strong cold air advection wednesday night
followed by a recovery of temperatures into the 40s thursday in
advance of the next low pressure system. this will be followed my
more cold air advection by friday night behind the low. so will be
leaning in the direction of blend of models for temperatures this
period.

&&

.long term /saturday through monday/...
broad upper level troughiness continues over the forecast area but a
weak area of high pressure is expected to build east across the
local area saturday and saturday night to bring a break in the
overall weather pattern albeit brief. a shortwave trough will slide
east across the area sunday night and force a surface low pressure
system into the area following the similar tracks of the previous
two storms. once again, warm air advection will prevail ahead of
the system and will be followed by cold air advection monday. the
northwest flow of cold air will not be as strong as the previous two
storm systems hopefully signifying the north pole has been tapped
out for cold air masses. moisture associated with this storm system
will be limited as it originates from the pacific northwest and
struggles to tap into any gulf of mexico or atlantic moisture.
temperatures during this period once again remain below normal and
will lean in the direction of the blended models.

&&

.aviation /06z tuesday through saturday/...
low pressure will move out of the central plains into the
central great lakes by evening forcing a warm front north into
and possibly north of the area during the afternoon and evening.
showers have already spread across much of the area in advance
of the warm front and cigs/vsbys have dropped to ifr in rain and
low clouds. am expecting a few thunderstorms this morning and an
increasing likelihood of thunder through the afternoon and
early evening as instability increases. the low passes to our
north this evening dragging a cold front through the region as
well. expecting strong to possibly severe thunderstorms along
and in advance of the warm front. also, southwest winds will
increase, gusting to around 30 knots mid/late afternoon ahead of
the cold front continuing from the west after passage.

.outlook...non-vfr lingering across far northeast oh/nw pa into
wednesday. additional period of non-vfr possible thursday into
friday.

&&

.marine...
all of the models are pointing at a period of gusty winds on lake
erie starting late tonight into wednesday. as the low pressure
system at the surface moves by to the east, winds aloft will mix
down and produce some gusts to 45 knots with sustained winds 35 to
40 knots mainly from the islands east on the lake. gale force winds
have the potential to be short lived as the speed of the low
pressure system picks up wednesday morning in response to upper
level trough lifting quickly northeast. will start the gale warning
from about 5 am wednesday morning and keep it up through 5 pm
wednesday afternoon. once gales are dropped, will likely need small
craft advisories through much of thursday. winds eventually
diminish thursday evening but increase again out of the southwest
and then west with the next storm system. if small craft advisories
are dropped for a period of time thursday, they will be needed again
by thursday night through early saturday. winds begin to diminish
saturday as high pressure builds east across the area.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...gale warning from 5 am to 5 pm edt wednesday for lez144>149-
164>169.

&&

$$
synopsis...tk
near term...tk
short term...lombardy
long term...lombardy
aviation...tk
marine...lombardy

by JR - 3501 words - 19 min read
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